Krusher or Canelo? Breaking down Sergey Kovalev v Saul Alvarez world title fight
The Russian light heavyweight scene has never been hotter, with all four world belts held by the country’s fighters. RT Sport breaks down veteran Sergey Kovalev’s defence of his WBO strap Canelo Alvarez on November 2.
Russia currently has a stranglehold on each organizational belt at 175 lbs, with Kovalev enjoying his third reign as world champion, Dmitry Bivol holding the WBA belt and unified IBF and WBC champion Artur Beterbiev completing the pack.
In Mexico's red-headed Canelo, Kovalev is fighting a top pound for pound fighter gunning for a world title at his fourth weight after moving up two divisions from the 160 lbs middleweight class. A pay-per-view darling and fully fledged box office veteran at only 29, landing a fight with 'Cinnamon' has been likened to winning the lottery.
A win for either fighter would mean major consequences for the boxing landscape, especially in the event Canelo should be beaten at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas this weekend.
THE FIGHT
Canelo is a bona fide superstar and the darling of American TV. Aged only 29, has a resume that is a who’s who of champions, having won world titles in 3 weight divisions at light middleweight, middleweight and super middleweight.
Kovalev is considered by most as still a world class fighter despite being aged 36 and having suffered three taxing defeats, twice against Andre Ward and then to Columbian-Canadian Eleider Alvarez, the latter of which was avenged. He's still up there with one of the most established champions in the game, and a one-time pound for pound star and Ring magazine 'Fighter of the Year'.
Canelo’s people have played their hand extremely well behind the scenes, securing the fight to take place just a little over two months after Kovalev fought a punishing 10-round war with up and coming Birt Anthony Yarde in his Chelyabinsk hometown on August 24.
This will be the third fight of the year for Kovalev in the space of 9 months, an awfully active stint for a fighter well into his thirties and a belt holder to boot. In contrast, Canelo has not fought more than twice a year since 2011, or to put it another way, since the age of 22.
Even before the fight, the powers behind one of the most powerful fighters in the sport tried to unsettle the Russian with an improved offer for a prospective matchup. But Kovalev remained steadfast and remarked “I’m not a prostitute that reaches out for cash”.
Right now, Kovalev will cash the fattest check of his career. For Canelo, it will be perhaps the biggest scalp on his record should he win, other than a disputed victory over the feared Gennady ‘GGG’ Golovkin.
WHAT'S AT STAKE
The main prize on the line on the night is the WBO light heavyweight title, but what could be at stake for both men outside of the ring could be much bigger. Both will receive a huge payment, and perhaps the biggest of Kovalev’s glittering career, but the advantages to be gained are beyond monetary.
Canelo could make history as Mexican four-weight world champ - only Erik Morales, Jorge Arce and Juan Manuel Marquez have achieved the same feat. What would make Canelo's achievement significant, is that his people, renowned for bossing the lower weights, have rarely won titles at the heavier divisions, let alone multiple times.
Kovalev admitted that Canelo "has nothing to lose" and that could be true. The Mexican is highly expected to make the trip south down the weight divisions regardless of the result, and with his status as WBC 'franchise' champion, he will lose no title on the night and be able to command the same money for future fights by virtue of his champion status.
At a recent media day in Las Vegas, Kovalev stated his motivation for the fight is to “for my glory and my history”, reiterating that this is a chance for Kovalev to cement his legacy before imminent retirement against one of the biggest stars in the game and in their prime.
That is something he failed to do against Andre Ward in their two meetings in 2016 and 2017. A 12-round win against Bernard Hopkins remains Kovalev's signature scalp, but that came long past his best days.
WHY THIS IS A 50/50 FIGHT
Many are already writing off Kovalev as on the slide, giving him nothing more than a punchers chance in a last stand for a proud warrior. However, Canelo is entering unchartered territory, moving up two weight classes despite ever having fought at the weight division, his first fight against a rough and tough, experienced and a knockout puncher despite his skills having somewhat eroded.
Canelo is known for his blistering body atacks which sap the life from fighters and can even end whole nights, such as his KO of Liam Smith for the WBO middleweight belt in September 2016. That could be a problem for Kovalev, who has some susceptibility to body punishment, as in his losses to Ward and another Alvarez in Canada's Eleider.
Kovalev has one of the strongest jabs in the game, but he faces the taks of landing a hand on Canelo, who is a master of defence and head movement. If he is successful and stays out of range of Canelo's concussively heavy hands, Kovalev could control the fight.
The fight will be held in America, which on paper will suit either fighter despite being technically foreign soil: Canelo being a superstar Stateside and Kovalev having been based in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, for his entire professional career.
However, there have been murmerings of favoritism toward Canelo in Las Vegas, displayed in his fight with Golovkin. That could play on Kovalev's mind, but the Russian has insisted he is ready to fight the full 12 rounds, it is yet to be seen whether he'll be vindicated.
WHAT COULD HAPPEN
Kovalev will likely call it a day aged 36 and having just received his biggest ever paycheck should he be defeated. Taking into account he will hang up his gloves comes after a double-header with Andre Ward and three reigns as world champion, including 2014 Ring magazine 'Fighter of the Year' honors, and Kova would descend into a happy retirement.
What’s really interesting is what happens in the event Kovalev is victorious. A rematch between the two would not be outside the realms of possibility as Canelo would want the chance to iron out what would be only his second career loss against an even more shopworn Kovalev.
However, Kovalev would more likely fight one of the other Russian world champions Bivol or Beterbiev, the rough, tough power puncher who recently became a unified champion by winning the WBC belt to add to his IBF strap with a devastating stoppage of Oleksandr Gvozdyk. That is, if Bivol and Beterbiev don't come to a conclusion on a fight before then.
Kovalev would perhaps be cannon fodder for unbeaten Beterbiev, who made it 15 KOs from 15 wins and was named "the most dangerous man in boxing" by Bivol after the Gvozdyk win. Beterbiev also has two amateur wins over Kovalev, but it would be the only fight fans would want to see, and Kovalev is not one to disappoint.
Canelo could look at a potential trilogy-completing bout with Gennady ‘GGG’ Golovkin, over whom he holds a hotly disputed draw and majority decision win. A third fight would satisfy fans and promoters alike. That fight also cannot be ruled out for Kovalev either, as it has been mooted for some years now, but neither part would likely be able to move up or down in weight.
