Trump outflanks Hillary after Republican convention – poll

Republican U.S. presidential nominee Donald Trump. © Aaron P. Bernstein
If the US presidential elections were held this week, Donald Trump would win, according to research published ahead of the Democratic National Convention. The Republican gathering that confirmed Trump’s nomination ended last week.

Trump has managed to move ahead of Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton with 48 percent of support against 45 percent in a head-to-head matchup, a CNN/ORC poll released on Monday showed. In a four-way race that also involved Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein, Trump leads with 44 percent.

The poll involved interviewing 1,001 adult Americans via telephone by ORC International on July 22-24. The error margin is plus or minus 3 percent, according to the information accompanying the poll.

Trump is seen favourably by 46 percent of respondents in contrast to 39 percent before last week’s GOP convention. Trump is considered to be honest and trustworthy based on the opinion of 43 percent of people, while last week the figure was at 39 percent. Thirty-nine percent also said that they would feel proud of Trump winning the presidency, while 32 percent had said that earlier.

Clinton has to deal with 68 percent of voters thinking she is dishonest and untrustworthy.

More than a half of respondents (52 percent) say Trump has no bad intentions and is running for the presidency for the good of the country. Nearly half say he understands the problems ordinary Americans struggle with every day.

Trump’s bounce was made possible with independent voters. Forty-six percent say they back Trump, 28 percent Clinton, 15 percent Johnson, and 4 percent Stein. Trump also leads among white voters without college degrees, with 62 percent saying they would back him. Hillary Clinton is the first choice of 44 percent of whites holding at least a bachelor’s degree.

Trump is now more trusted in settling economic issues, dealing with terrorism and managing foreign policy than Hillary Clinton, the poll continues.

The number of people who believe Trump will be able to unite the country has also increased – from 34 percent to 42 percent after the convention.

This is Trump’s best performance in a CNN/ORC poll since September 2015.

The convention itself, however, was not seen as such a big success in the eyes of voters. Almost 58 percent called Trump’s speech terrible, the highest number since the question was introduced to the poll in 1996.

It is quite common that parties experience a boost in support in the days following their conventions, which can influence the opinions of a large number of people.

This is the first time since 2000 that a candidate has received such a significant bounce and has taken the lead after a party convention. Last time Al Gore and George W. Bush increased their support in a CNN poll both by eight points after conventions of their parties took place.