Russian central bank estimates how long sanctions will last

Western restrictions against the Russian economy won’t be lifted within the next several years, the Bank of Russia said in its monetary policy report, released on Tuesday.

The US and its allies targeted Russia with unprecedented economic sanctions in response to Moscow’s military operation in Ukraine. Due to these restrictions, Russia has effectively been deprived of the ability to conduct international transactions in dollars and euros, and has lost access to the Western banking system.

According to the report, which outlined the base-case economic development scenario for 2024-2026, the regulator does not expect “a significant change in geopolitical conditions” until the end of that time period.

“The introduced external restrictions on Russian exports, imports, investment and technological cooperation in the medium term will remain in place,” the report stated.

The forecast sees global economic growth slowing, while inflationary pressures are easing in many countries. At the same time, global interest rates will remain at high levels for a long time, the report states.

The regulator also said that it expects the price of oil to gradually decline in tandem with global growth. According to the report’s projections, by 2027 the price of Brent crude will reach $70 per barrel.

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