Common sense or a secret deal? Russian bloggers discuss AMD

Washington’s decision to review its proposed missile shield in Europe earned much applause in the Russian blogosphere, but many are wondering what’s behind the U-turn in American foreign policy.

1devilandangel: It’s a triumph of common sense. They’ve decided to give the system another complete brush, and not patch the holes once it’s already put into operation.

socialister: The USA made a step toward Russia and will expect a step toward them on Iran sanctions. If that doesn’t come, a dead end is inevitable.

plus72: Initially no one was going to place the AMD there. In the EU the Americans need nothing; the trajectories of Russian missiles aimed at America are not connected with Europe. They’ve used old proven tactics to do something to then pull back in exchange for concessions. The question is, what does the Kremlin get for it?

samo-gone: I hope this move will somewhat cool and bring down to earth Poland, and that it will finally start building a relationship with Russia instead of hoping for some help from overseas. Obama’s decision is not as so much in the field of strategy as it is in the field of economy: setting up the AMD in Europe would’ve broken the already weak state of the American economy, and the effectiveness of missile shield use in competing with Russia was doubted by leading American experts. It’s a myth that Obama was not ready to pay for, especially against the background of the healthcare reform he’s starting. Left face to face with Russia, Poland and the Czech Republic – I hope – will change their view on all European security issues.

pausha-li: Poor Poles, they already planned on grabbing a piece of that pie. But the most interesting things will now happen in START talks. The Americans probably will try to pressure us for some bonuses for their failure – either in the number of carriers, or in flyback deploy-only launchers.

n-i-k-o-l-a-i-2: Why do they need this AMD somewhere in Poland if now, according to the new treaty, they can daily fly over Russia with unchecked military cargo to Afghanistan? If they want to, they’ll just land their assault force somewhere in Ryazan or Novosibirsk.

olegchernenko: It’s nice to have friends in Venezuela and Cuba, all ready to help with fighting international terrorism and place elements of Russian AMD on their territories. The events with “Arctic Sea” and the secrets visits of Israeli bosses to Moscow look interesting against this background. This behavior pattern is typical for the so-called “modern American elites”: the clinging instincts of small swindlers – the ruler of the world financial pyramid – are stronger than the proven violent methods of the old administration. They are diminishing.

balalayker: It should be presumed that Russian authorities, as a reply to this decision by the US, will have to agree to UN sanctions against Iran. The sanctions themselves, obviously, will be voted on based on claims by the US that they have certain info on active improvements in Iranian missile and nuke programs – the same way they claimed their intelligence found chemical weapons production in Iraq. If Russia vetoes the sanctions, it will still in the long run hurt Moscow. The reason is that the certain decrease in living standards that will follow economic sanctions will cost Ahmadinejad his post, and instead of him a pro-American politician may come to power (this scenario, in all its variations, did not work in Iraq, but worked out in Yugoslavia). The pro-American politician will be able to make progress on Nabucco, and then make Iran a part of the ring of American armed forces surrounding Russia – and they have offensive weapons.

panzerbear: Let’s look at things realistically. First, at the moment it’s a great breakthrough and an undisputable victory of Russia. Yes, surely we should not overestimate the influence of our country and efforts of our diplomats, but underestimating them is also wrong. Good job! Second, if you look at it from the American point of view, they haven’t really lost anything. They are in the same crisis that hit everyone else, and it’s unwise to waste money here and there, especially to protect from imaginary threats. Moreover, it’s a cunning thing to do absolutely nothing (first they promise to build the shield, then change their mind) and get a whole bunch of concessions and an approval of their actions by Russia. Imho, we need to learn that from the US. And third, the only losers here are the political elites of Poland and Czech Republic. Once again we see that Eastern Europe is still a buffer, a bargaining chip. Their opinions will only be listened to when it’s a political necessity.

Tatyana Bauer: The cancellation of AMD placement in Poland and Czech Republic by the US has surprised only the heads of these European states. This medicine is very bitter, but they still had to take it. One of the main arguments for revision was Russia’s negative position on this. And Russia is the state you must reckon with. This decision of the US will cool some heads of the new generation of anti-Russian politicians. Or can it be a message from America to the countries of Eastern Europe that the earthen pout must keep clear of the brass kettle?