EU oil sanctions: Iran to get its retaliation in first?
From Iran’s perspective it would be rational to cut exports to the EU in advance if that will drive oil prices high enough to cover losses, believes Ghahramani. Given the fundamental threat that Iran is facing right now, they may decide to make such a move, he added.
“What is happening in Iran is a fundamental threat, an existential threat, to the Islamic Republic regime,” Ghahramani explained. “Ultimately, Iran clearly has more to lose not just by the European oil embargo, but more importantly the embargo on the financial institutions and the central bank, which really started in the US and has really hampered Iran’s ability to conduct financial transactions.”
“They have managed to work around that with China and with India, but that has made a huge dent, it has caused a massive panic in the Iranian economy,” he added.
Ghahramani believes that the West is using sanctions to put as much pressure on the Iranian regime as it can.
“I think the real unwritten objective here is, quite frankly, call it by a different name, but it is regime change ultimately,” he said.