Russia's grain harvest forecast upgraded

Russian farmers are projected to reap up to 137 million tons of grain, including 88 million tons of wheat this year, according to the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR). 

"The forecast for the wheat crop has been increased by 1.5 million (tons) to 88 million tons, while the estimate of gross grain harvest is expected to rise to 137 million tons,” IKAR CEO Dmitry Rylko told RIA Novosti on Tuesday. 

Export capacity assessment has also been raised by IKAR analysts, who predict foreign sales of grain to amount to 61 million tons, including 47.5 million tons of wheat. 

The consultancy upgraded its previous forecast, basing the latest report on crop production numbers released by the national statistics agency Rosstat. 

According to estimates by Russia’s agriculture ministry earlier in 2023, grain output in the current agricultural year (July 2022 to June 2023) should amount to 123 million tons, including 78 million tons of wheat. 

However, the ministry noted that the forecast could still be upgraded. It said that the country’s export potential for the agricultural year 2022-23 was hovering around 55 million tons. 

Last year, Russian farmers harvested 157 million tons of grain and pulse crops, marking a year-on-year surge of nearly 30%. The wheat crop alone soared 37% to 104 million tons compared to 76.1 million tons recorded in 2021. The nation managed to retain its status as a net exporter of agricultural goods in 2022, reportedly accounting for every fifth export batch of wheat in the world.

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