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5 Jul, 2022 10:19

Record drop in Russian gas supply to EU predicted

The International Energy Agency forecasts deliveries will decrease by more than half by 2025
Record drop in Russian gas supply to EU predicted

Russia’s pipeline gas supplies to the EU will fall by more than half in the next three years, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday.

“In our forecast, Russian pipeline supplies to the European Union [will] decline by over 55% by 2025 compared to their 2021 levels, with Russia meeting 20% of EU gas demand.” the IEA’s latest Gas Market Report states. “The share of Russian gas in EU gas demand is expected to drop to just 25% in 2022 – its lowest level in more than two decades,” the agency adds.

According to the IEA, the European Union’s commitment to phase out gas imports from Russia, historically its largest supplier, is having “global repercussions.”

According to the agency’s data, between 2009 and 2019 the share of Russian gas (including LNG) in total EU demand rose from 30% to 47%. However, the fallout of anti-Russian sanctions has seen Europe’s demand for LNG surge, leading to “an exceptionally tight global market.”

The agency estimates that global natural gas consumption will contract slightly this year but will then grow at an average of 0.8% per year through 2025 amid rising prices and fears of further supply disruptions.

It says that Gazprom’s supply cuts to several EU member states earlier this year over their failure to comply with the ruble payment terms have further contributed to the uncertainty in the global gas market.

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