Greeks will vote ‘Yes’ over bailout terms, polls and bookmakers suggest
The latest polls and betting suggest Greece will back the cash-for-reform deal proposed by creditors in the July 5 referendum. They point to a mood shift since Athens closed banks and limited cash withdrawals.
A poll conducted by GOP for BNP Paribas, put the ‘Yes’ vote on 47.1 percent and the ‘No’ side on 43.2 percent. It also found that 60 percent of those asked believed Greece should remain part of the eurozone, no matter what the cost.
BNP Paribas, France's largest bank, possessed around €700 million in Greek debt at the end of 2013, Reuters reported, referring to data provided by the bank. Most of the exposure was to corporate borrowers and none was to Greek state institutions, it said.
Another survey conducted by Reuters also hints at a ‘Yes’ vote. Of 21 US investors interviewed 15 expect Greeks to accept the international creditors’ bailout offer.
"The arguments in favor of a ‘Yes’ vote grow every minute the ATM machines don’t dispense money," chief investment officer at Cumberland Advisors in Florida, David Kotok told Reuters.
Earlier opinion polls suggested that Greeks would oppose the bailout. However, the latest surveys showed that support for a ‘No’ vote had slipped after Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras imposed capital controls and closed banks on Monday. Some political analysts say this has become one of the key factors in determining the outcome of the plebiscite.
Bookmakers also say the ‘Yes’ vote is leading. More than 85 percent of bets placed with Ireland's largest bookmaker Paddy Power gambled that Greek voters will accept austerity measures insisted on by the troika of lenders, the ECB, European Commission, and IMF.
‘Yes’ has become the betting favorite recently, according to UK bookmaker Ladbrokes. Sixty-two percent of the money is for ‘Yes’ and the probability is up to 66 percent. However, the head of Ladbrokes' political betting operation Matthew Shaddick, said he remains cautious, because "obviously it's very easy for events to move rapidly one way or the other."
Greece will vote on Sunday whether to accept the creditors’ bailout demands or not. The Greek Prime Minister on Wednesday said he would accept most of the terms proposed by the EU with just minor changes. In a television address to the nation Tsipras said that the country needs reforms, different from the ones international lenders are insisting on. He also called the citizens to back a ‘No’ vote.
A 'No' in the referendum wouldn’t mean the end of negotiations with the Troika but would be an important step to getting a better deal, according to the Greek Prime Minister. He assured that the referendum has nothing to do with Greece staying in the eurozone, adding that any threats to expel Greece from the currency union are a bluff.
On June 30 Greece failed to repay a €1.6 billion debt to the IMF, becoming the first developed country to default on its international obligations.