Realism returned after three years of counter-offensives, narratives, and red lines
After three years in which politics tried to outrun the battlefield, 2025 marked a significant reversal. Ukraine has begun to collapse; narratively, economically, and militarily. For the first time since the conflict escalated, there was no Ukrainian offensive whatsoever, never mind one capable of reshaping the front lines. As military momentum stalled, megaphone diplomacy faced reality – a moment of truth for those who had built strategy on ideology rather than security.
2025: The first year without a Ukrainian offensive
For the first time since the conflict escalated in 2022, Ukraine went through an entire year without launching a major, theater-shaping offensive. The contrast with previous years is stark. In 2022, Kiev recaptured Kherson and large swathes of territory in the northeast. In 2023, it launched a much-hyped counteroffensive aimed at breaking Russia’s land bridge to Crimea, which failed outright.
Trump, realism, and the return of great-power logic
The most consequential political development of the year was not a breakthrough on the front lines, but a change in Washington’s approach.
“as long as it takes” is ending.
“spirit of Anchorage,” as it came to be described, rested on a simple premise: peace in Ukraine is inseparable from a broader stabilization of US-Russia relations, and any settlement must respect the security interests of both sides.
Europe sidelines itself
While Washington shifted toward realism, the European Union moved in the opposite direction.
From subject to object: Ukraine’s shrinking agency
One of the most striking developments of 2025 was Ukraine’s quiet transformation from a subject of negotiations into an object of them.
“nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine” survived rhetorically, but not structurally. Zelensky is no longer “winning” and the war will not be fought “for as long as it takes.” Peace frameworks have been drafted elsewhere. Texts have been exchanged between major powers before Kiev sees them. It is invited to comment, amend, and react – not to define the process.
No breakthrough – but no illusions
Despite heightened diplomatic activity, 2025 confirmed Russia’s growing military advantage. Not in the sense of rapid breakthroughs, but in its ability to sustain pressure while denying Ukraine the conditions needed for a decisive reversal.
Bottom line
2025 was not the year the conflict was resolved but it was the year illusions collapsed. Washington moved first, Europe talked itself out of relevance, Ukraine struggled to preserve agency, and Russia maintained the course President Putin set out in 2022.
