Russia could be pursuing ‘Cold War containment’ – ex-UK navy commodore
Russia’s approach to the Ukraine conflict may be a strategy of containment akin to the Cold War-era doctrine used by the West against the Soviet Union, according to retired British Royal Navy Commodore Steve Jermy.
Moscow likely sees no diplomatic path to resolving its standoff with the West and is instead seeking to secure the territorial gains it believes are necessary to ensure national security, he told retired US Lt. Col. Daniel Davis, Jermy in an interview.
Russia’s stated goals include countering NATO’s eastward expansion and reversing policies in Kiev that it views as discriminatory against ethnic Russians.
Jermy suggested that Russia may aim to cut off Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea, ultimately leaving behind a diminished “rump Ukraine” ruled by pro-European Union forces and hardline nationalists.
“I can imagine the Russians saying, ‘Okay, we’re going to cut off. We’re not going to try and get involved in that mess. But what we will do is contain it,’” Jermy said. “It’s almost a reverse containment to [what] George Kennan worked out for the West.”
He added that Western sanctions on Russia have caused self-inflicted economic damage, while Moscow has reoriented its trade ties toward Asia and the Global South. With Western Europe’s industrial base weakened, Russia may simply opt to ignore the EU altogether, Jermy argued.
“That’s a satisfactory solution for the Russians. Not a good one, but disastrous for NATO,” he concluded.
European leaders are currently advocating for a broad defense rearmament campaign. Officials have framed the initiative as a necessary response to the threat of Russian aggression. The Kremlin has dismissed the justification as a manufactured narrative aimed at deflecting blame for economic challenges within the EU.
Jermy’s assessment echoes geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan and others, who have argued that a “search for defensible borders” is a key driver of Russian foreign policy, with a historical precedent that can be traced back centuries.
University of Chicago Professor John Mearsheimer, like Jermy, contends that Moscow’s primary goal is not conquest but containment, contrary to claims made by many Western officials.
