'Finally - finally! - Obama has earned his Nobel Peace Prize'
RT:The Iranian nuclear deal's been hailed as 'historic' and yet the US Congress is warning Obama, that the Republicans will do everything to block it. How can that be?
Gerald Celente: Let’s not forget Senator [Tom] Cotton, from one of the southern states down there, sent the letter along with 47 other Senators who said that in the new election that if a GOP [Republican Party] president was elected they would kill the deal. This is just more talk. As an American, I’m quite astounded by this behavior. What’s the matter with peace? Why do they have to keep talking about war? Finally, finally Obama has earned his Nobel Peace Prize Award by trying to bring peace with Iran and easing the sanctions that are only hurting the people. It is a presidential year, and it’s a presidential reality show, and all of the opposition is going to talk tough. But as President Obama said he is going to veto it if they don’t pass it.
RT:How likely is today's deal to collapse due to internal politics in the US?
GC: It may well in the US, but let’s not forget there are six other nations involved in this. So the US isn’t calling all the cards over here. If they do veto it - under pressure from Israel and the Republican Congress, and Democrats on side with Israel - it’s going to really cast a shadow over America as a very weak country that doesn’t have the strength to stand up on its own.
RT:Iran is still on the State Department's list of state sponsors of terrorism. So, how much of a real thaw is this deal for relations between Iran and the US?
GC: Well, they well should be. After all, didn’t Iran overthrow [Muammar] Gaddafi? Oh no, I think that was the US and its coalition. Didn’t Iran overthrow Saddam Hussein? No, I think George Bush did that one under the lie of weapons of mass destruction and ties to Al-Qaeda.
How about Afghanistan, the longest war in American history? How about overthrowing [Bashar] Assad that American and the Arab League of Nations is also overthrowing and has caused mass destabilization there. Iran has not invaded a country in over 200 years. How can they be on the list of people and countries causing terror?
Oh, I forgot! Didn’t they just bomb Gaza last year and kill over 2,000 people? Oh, no, that was Israel. Hypocrisy is coming out of the Congress, and the mainstream media in America is disgusting. Why don’t they put the facts on the table, rather than throwing out empty rhetoric?
RT:You’ve mentioned Israel. What are we going to hear from it from now on then, do you think? And what is it going to do for US- Israel relations?
GC: We’ve already heard from Prime Minister [Benjamin] Netanyahu. What is he going to do? Come out with another cartoon bomb that he drew in the UN three years ago warning us that the time limit of that nuclear explosion was ready to happen? They will bend under the pressure of Israel considering it’s an election year coming up in 2016. There is going to be a lot of pressure from them to scuttle this deal. There is no question about it. In the long run, however, I do not believe the deal will be killed. Obama promised to veto it, and again, there are six major nations involved in this. Despite the pressure, I think the deal ultimately will go through. However, having said that, there are always the wild cards. It could be a terrorist strike blamed on Iran. It could be a false flag or real, whatever. Something could derail it. But as things stand now I don’t believe it will be.
Iran deal: No long-term effect on oil prices
Dr. Mamdouh Salameh, International Oil Economist said that lifting the sanctions on Iran will not have any impact on oil prices.
RT:So with regards to that so-called roadmap to resolving those remaining issues it seems a lot can still go wrong doesn't it?
Dr. Mamdouh Salameh: Yes, for once the American Congress will have to approve it. Though, if they refuse President Obama can veto their refusal. And of course there are other issues relating to countries in the Arab Gulf, like Saudi Arabia, UAE [United Arab Emirates], Qatar, Kuwait - all these countries, and of course Iraq. There are issues, and these issues have to be resolved, but it will take time before you create an atmosphere leading to peace in the area.
What will worry these countries particularly will be the impact of lifting the sanctions on Iran on oil prices. On this score I can easily say that it will hardly have an effect on the oil price, although the oil price dropped a bit now in anticipation of the agreement. But I can tell you that it will have hardly an effect on the oil prices long-term, because even after lifting the sanctions, and even if Iran is able to import the latest technology, it has a lot of damage and depletion of oil fields, and it will need a lot of time. Furthermore, to develop any new oil fields, it will need investment. In the current climate of low oil prices and cutting of expenditures, I don’t think many oil companies will be looking forward to rush to Iran and invest there.
RT:How hard has Iran been hit by sanctions? Tehran is pretty starved for cash. Is there a danger they could just go in very low with the oil price and bring the market down affecting anybody?
DMS: They can, if they as they claim, they can double if not flood the oil market with their oil. That is not going to happen now or in the future. The most that Iran can add to the global oil market, as I said before, is between 300,000-500,000 barrels a day, which brings them back to what they were a few years ago. Even then, that addition will not translate into exports because of the growing domestic demand in Iran. Furthermore, it will take Iran a lot of time to be able even to increase that amount of oil. Therefore, I would say the impact on the global oil price will be negligible, and we will not see any effect for the next 2-3 years at least.
RT:Do you think the deal is indeed a win- win for everyone involved?
DMS: It is a good agreement because it will certainly ease the tension between Iran and other European powers, and the US. Whether it will translate into easing of tension in the Arab Gulf remains to be seen. I think Saudi Arabia, UAE, and other Gulf countries will need some time to study the details of that agreement to see whether Iran really means that it will relinquish its search to develop nuclear weapons. Iran needs nuclear power to replace the oil and natural gas being used to generate electricity. But we know that when you start to enrich uranium, you are not far off from the ability and the technology to develop nuclear weapons. On this score, the Arab Gulf countries - particularly led by Saudi Arabia - will be very, very careful and watchful to see if Iran will abide by the details of the agreement. There is always a clause which enables the global community, or the international community, to re-impose the sanctions on Iran if it violates the clauses of the agreement.
The statements, views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of RT.