Risk of civil unrest rising globally – study
Countries worldwide are experiencing an “unprecedented” rise in the potential for civil unrest, according to a fresh study by Verisk Maplecroft, a UK-based global strategic consulting firm.
Over 100 nations experienced an “increase in risk” of civil unrest in the last quarter, the company said in its Civil Unrest Index (CUI) published on Thursday. The index is derived from a set of various surveys assessing different factors, such as inflation and government mechanisms to overcome or quell conflicts, as well as the overall impact of unrest.
Out of 198 nations worldwide, only 42 saw the risk of civil unrest decreasing in the surveyed period, while 101 of them saw it increasing. The situation in the rest remained unchanged compared to the previous quarter. The company linked the rising civil unrest risk with “the impacts of inflation on the price of staple foods and energy.”
“The impact is evident across the globe, with popular discontent over rising living costs emerging on the streets of developed and emerging markets alike, stretching from the EU, Sri Lanka and Peru to Kenya, Ecuador and Iran,” it said in a press release.
Europe “stands out” in the ranking negatively, having experienced a rise in the risk of civil unrest “in large part due to the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” the company said. The situation on the continent is expected to get worse in the next six months and “Bosnia and Herzegovina, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Germany, and Ukraine are all among the states with the biggest projected increases in risk,” it added.
The registered uptick in civil unrest risk is the largest since the CUI was first released by the company back in 2016.
“With more than 80% of countries around the world seeing inflation above 6%, socioeconomic risks are reaching critical levels. Almost half of all the countries on the CUI are now categorized as high- or extreme-risk, and a large number of states are expected to experience a further deterioration over the next six months,” Verisk Maplecroft noted.
The global trend is unlikely to change anytime soon, the company warned. “Only a significant reduction in global food and energy prices can arrest the negative global trend in civil unrest risk. Recession fears are mounting and inflation is expected to be worse in 2023 than in 2022,” it explained.