India’s economy to return to normal faster than expected – Barclays

The Indian economy is expected to grow 8.5 percent in the 2022 fiscal year, according to Barclays. The firm has raised its earlier projection of seven percent, saying the country will “return to normal” faster than expected.

The upward correction comes as the coronavirus curve in the world’s second-most populous nation begins to flatten. Confirmed coronavirus cases in the country have exceeded nine million, but the number of new daily cases has fallen since a peak in mid-September. 

“The prospect of an effective vaccine in the near future and high serum prevalence of antibodies across the population support the case for a more durable economic recovery,” Barclays said in a note seen by the Economic Times.

The country’s GDP forecast for the current fiscal year has been revised, however, down to negative 6.4 percent from negative six percent. Barclays expects GDP to fall by 8.5 percent in the second quarter of the current fiscal year, almost in line with the Indian central bank’s forecast.

Last week, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) projected the nation’s GDP to contract by 8.6 percent in the July-September quarter, implying the country was likely to have entered a technical recession in the first half of the year for the first time in its history.

Barclays’ projections were echoed by Morgan Stanley, which has said the Indian economy will see strong growth by April next year. “We maintain a constructive view on the economy and expect the growth recovery to gain strength from 2Q21,” Morgan Stanley’s 2021 Global Macro Outlook report said, noting that the growth would be accompanied by inflation under control.

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