'Shocking' 2016 predictions: $100 crude, strong ruble
Among the 10 events that could significantly affect next year’s financial landscape analysts see would be oil’s brief but drastic return to $100 per barrel on the back of OPEC’s turmoil.
According to Saxo Bank, the global geopolitical situation will make the Russian ruble the most successful currency in 2016. The ruble is predicted to rise 20 percent against the US dollar by the end of next year.
The 2016 issue of Outrageous Predictions has been published and is available for you to download for free now! https://t.co/AGewYmqsGp— Saxo Bank (@saxobank) December 16, 2015
Here are the rest of Saxo Bank's "outrageous predictions":
The euro will become a “stronger currency and not a weaker one” in the euro/dollar pair, according to the report. “The race to the bottom has gone full circle, meaning we are back to a weaker US dollar again as the direct outcome of US interest rate policy.”
Late 2016 will see a series of aggressive rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. It would trigger a huge selloff in all major bond markets similar to the Lehman Brothers scenario.
American politics will go through dramatic changes with the Republican Party seeing weakness over its internal struggle, and Democrats retaining the presidency and retaking Congress in 2016.
“Silicon Valley’s unicorns brought back down to earth,” meaning that startups will delay monetization and tangible business models in exchange for adding users and trying to achieve critical mass.
Silver will regain public confidence in 2016, rallying by a third and leaving other metals behind. “The political drive towards reducing carbon dioxide emissions by supporting renewable energy will add to increased industrial demand for the metal.”
The upcoming Olympics in Brazil will boost emerging markets (EM). “Stabilization, investment spending on the Olympics, and modest reforms will see sentiment rebound in Brazil, with EM exports helped by cheaper local currencies.”
Saxo Bank also predicted the strongest El Nino in 2016 surging inflation as it “will cause moisture deficits in many areas of southeast Asia and droughts in Australia.” It also forecasted inequality’s “last laugh” on luxury with an unemployment rate of over 10 percent in Europe.
Last year’s "Outrageous Predictions for 2015" from Saxo Bank included Russia's default, a volcanic eruption in Iceland, subsequent drop in yields in Europe, the devaluation of the Chinese yuan and a record increase in the price of cocoa.
The "predictions" are meant in fun, with the bank's official position differing.
“I do expect that the average price of oil next year will be much higher than the present $35-$37 range. For me, oil over the next 10 years will trade basically at $40 to $60,” Chief Economist at Saxo Bank, Steen Jakobsen told RT on Wednesday. He added that the average price of oil in 2016 will be probably at $50 a barrel.