On the first day of September, Vladimir Zelensky declared that Russian civil aviation is under threat because of Ukrainian drone attacks.
Russian authorities and diplomats saw clear signs of terrorism in this barely concealed threat and stressed that this is not the first time Ukraine has demonstrated its commitment to the cruelest and most inhumane methods of warfare. Former president and current deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council Dmitry Medvedev called for retribution and even hinted at strikes against the sponsors of this terrorism – the leaders of Western countries.
This article presents comments by leading Russian military and aviation experts, analysts, and publicists reacting to this latest escalation by Kiev.
Roman Gusarov, aviation expert, Editor-in-Chief of aviaru.net
Any sane person can interpret this only as a direct threat to civil aviation, to aircraft in the sky, and to ground infrastructure. This is simply beyond the pale. Never before has there been a case of the head of one state threatening civilian aircraft in the skies of another.
And here, unfortunately, what depresses me even more is the silence of Western public organizations and human rights groups. I am not even talking about aviation organizations like the International Civil Aviation Organization. Zelensky’s threat is a violation of all international conventions. There should have been an immediate reaction. These are threats to the safety of civilian flights. What more is needed? Yet there is no reaction at all. And in essence, this is silent consent. Or perhaps even approval. It is simply very sad.
The world has been turned upside down. Until recently, we could not even imagine that something like this could be said – and then met with silence.
Still, behind such a statement I see not so much a real threat as a certain act of desperation. I believe that after a week of massive strikes on Ukraine’s infrastructure – its ports, energy facilities, storage depots, warehouses, and everything else – Zelensky is looking for at least some way to stop all of this, but can find no other means than to resort to direct threats and intimidation.
The purpose of this statement is not so much actual strikes and the possibility of carrying them out, as intimidation in the hope that foreign jurisdictions and airlines will be frightened and stop flying to Russia. In other words, the main target was not really Russia, but our partners, in order to provoke fear and a reaction from them.
Because if we look at the practical possibility of carrying out these plans, I do not see it. We have had massive raids, for example against the Moscow region, with more than a thousand drones in a single day. And here it does not matter whether they are flying to strike a particular airport or simply in the direction of Moscow. Our air defense system and our security system work preemptively, cleanly, and in coordination.
As soon as it becomes clear that drones are moving toward a given region – that is, once there is information from air defense systems – the airspace is immediately closed, all aircraft leave that air zone for alternate airfields. Aircraft do not take off, do not climb, airports are shut down. And during all the years of the Special Military Operation, thankfully, there has not been a single dangerous encounter between a civilian aircraft and a drone. Precisely because this system works. And it will continue to work in exactly the same way. Therefore, I do not see any particular danger here for aircraft in the air.
I do not rule out the possibility of deliberately damaging ground infrastructure, specifically strikes on airports. Theoretically, such a thing may be possible to carry out somehow. But hardly in the Moscow area, because it is completely secured – and that accounts for 80% of flights in the country, the lion’s share. Somewhere in the regions they may try to do something like that. But given that foreign airlines mostly fly to Moscow, I also do not see any reason for them to panic and cancel flights or stop operations.
Viktor Litovkin, retired colonel and military commentator
This can only be viewed as an act of state terrorism. When the towers in New York were struck in 2001, only afterward did we learn who had claimed responsibility. But this underdeveloped clown is announcing in advance that he and his clique will carry out terrorist acts against aviation flying over Russia and around the world. This is a serious statement that should, of course, attract the attention of the international community. I think Western countries will simply turn a deaf ear to all this, because they believe Zelensky and his accomplices are unlikely to dare carry out some strike that would harm Western companies.
But for Russian aircraft and other aircraft over Russia, this threat exists, and it can be countered in only one way – by destroying the criminal terrorist regime that exists in Kiev. There is no other way, because with terrorists the conversation is short: they must be exterminated like cockroaches, there can be no other outcome.
Western authorities aren’t interested in international law in this case – anything that is done against Russia, they will support all of it. They should remember that Russia is a nuclear power. This bear is very patient, very calm for the time being, and then suddenly it swings a paw – and half your head is gone. That is how a bear behaves when it is provoked. So if they continue – they may only have themselves to blame later.
Dmitry Kornev, military expert, founder of the Military Russia project
First of all: Zelensky says that the number of Ukrainian drones striking targets deep inside Russian territory will be so great that civilian air traffic will become impossible. That is, he is not speaking of striking civilian airfields, he is not speaking of striking civilian aircraft; he is speaking of such a high intensity of Ukrainian drone raids that, during such raids, civilian airports would cease operations and civilian air service across the entire European part of the Russian Federation would be shut down.
Question number one: where will Ukraine get so many drones to organize such a large-scale attack? It may well be that they have built up certain reserves. In the coming weeks we will see, we will find out whether that is the case or not. God willing, I may be wrong. The second point is that they may deliberately send drones specifically toward civilian airports so that the mere appearance of a drone would halt airport operations. In that case, for dozens of civilian airports in the European part of the country, Kiev could probably find dozens of drones. Unfortunately, this is possible.
Where do these drones even come from, given the systematic strikes by the Russian Aerospace Forces and missile troops against facilities on Ukrainian territory, including those linked to drone production? This can be explained in only one way: they have succeeded in creating such a distributed drone production system that knocking out individual or even dozens of facilities does not lead to the cessation of output. Theoretically this is possible – if they have learned to scale production across hundreds of production sites, then yes, it is expensive, yes, it entails additional costs, but it ensures the uninterrupted assembly of drones even if some links in that production chain are taken out.
It is quite likely that, if over several years we have not been able to destroy and stop drone production in Ukraine, then even massive strikes over several days or even weeks will not produce such a result. And one must understand that Kiev has been preparing for this; Kiev has been preparing for distributed production capable of withstanding prolonged Russian missile raids. Whether it works or not, we will find out in the coming weeks.
Aleksandr Kots, war correspondent
Zelensky is breaking the behavioral patterns of international terrorists. Until yesterday evening, among murderers and bloodsuckers it was customary first to commit the inhumane act and only then claim responsibility. That is how it is done. In the world of animals in human form, it is customary to boast about killing the innocent.
Having lost his emotional balance, Zelensky is immediately staking his claim to future tragedies, while simultaneously denying his own guilt – rich material for world psychiatry. Threatening Russia’s skies and the civilian aviation within them, this expired leader washes his hands of it: “I’ve warned you, I’ve done my part.”
The design, despite its outward insanity, is two-level. And the first level does not require a single drone. It is enough for major foreign carriers and, most importantly, insurers to react to the statement itself. A reassessment of the risk profile, rising premiums, flight cancellations, refusal to serve a problematic destination. Then “we closed Russia’s skies” can be reported to partners as early as next week. A free little ‘victory'.
The second level is for if the market does not flinch. Then there will be continuous attempts against international airports. Not even necessarily against the air hubs themselves. The task is different: a 24/7 emergency air closure mode. Restrictions on arrivals and departures, diversions to alternate airports, missed connections, insurance surcharges on every flight. They will try to make flights to Russia not dangerous, but unprofitable.
Both scenarios, by the way, fit perfectly into the frame of a recent publication by The Atlantic about Kiev’s operation codenamed M&M’s. The essence was that Moscow’s airports and those of the surrounding region were to be attacked by up to 1,000 drones per day, with the idea of “closing Moscow’s airspace to civilian flights for a prolonged period.”
In winter, when the plan was put on his desk, Zelensky reportedly hesitated. Not out of mercy. He was afraid that a drone might hit a passenger aircraft belonging to his ‘esteemed partners'. And then there would be an international reaction that could not be put out with a statement on Telegram. Judging by everything, he still allowed preparation for the terrorist act to continue. Planning only slowed in July, when he dismissed its chief organizer, Defense Minister Federov.
Kiev authorities called the publication “complete nonsense.” But on August 28 Zelensky promised a thousand drones a day. Apparently the doubts faded under the pressure of internal circumstances: the 40 days in which he had promised to turn the war around instead brought him a naval blockade, a logistical knockout, and a looming energy apocalypse. We did not merely call his bet – we attacked and raised it. The sad comedian is now trying to outbid it and go all-in.
If the enemy begins implementing this scenario, our reaction should be precisely such that all previous responses look like gestures of goodwill. We could even warn them. Twenty-four hours in advance or so.