BlackRock CEO Larry Fink has warned of an impending global recession if the US-Israeli war on Iran drags on and oil prices remain above $100 a barrel. The stark prediction comes just weeks after Fink framed the conflict as a good long-term investment opportunity.
In a wide-ranging interview with the BBC this week, Fink said oil prices could stay above $100 per barrel for years if Iran “remains a threat,” potentially hitting $150 and sparking “a probably stark and steep recession.”
He described two scenarios for the conflict – one in which Iran is “accepted again by the international community,” allowing oil to fall below pre-war levels, and another in which tensions persist, leading to sustained high energy costs with “profound implications” for the global economy.
However, earlier this month, Fink, whose company holds significant stakes in major US defense contractors, struck a markedly different tone. During an appearance on Fox News, he dismissed the notion of a prolonged war, predicting that oil would “revert back to where it was and maybe even lower” once the conflict ends.
“If the outcome of the war is a neutralized Iran, and they are allowed to be selling oil products into the market again, there’s a great probability that oil is gonna be below $50,” he said, urging investors against pulling out of volatile markets, stating he had been telling people to “buy more” and framing it as a “good long-term opportunity.”
Meanwhile, major investment firms have already started positioning themselves for potential post-war reconstruction deals. Admiral James Stavridis, a former NATO supreme allied commander now at investment giant Carlyle, told Semafor this week that investors are already mapping out opportunities in Iran and other conflict zones.
Recalling the reconstruction of South Korea in the mid-20th century after the Korean War, Stavridis stated that “that could be [Iran], that could be Cuba, that could be Venezuela, that could be Ukraine. Those are investment opportunities that ought to be taken very seriously.”
The unprovoked US-Israeli attack on Iran has caused chaos in the energy market, limiting the availability of oil and gas and pushing Brent crude prices to as high as $120 a barrel this month.