This summer, is the global economy facing a 'Kondratieff Winter?'
Welcome to Capital Account. Federal Reserve budget hawks are speaking out against the central bank taking further action, the Wall Street Journal reports. Why pay so much attention to the whims of international central banks? Is it because the belief in the power of central banking is what really matters most to markets? We talk to Peter Baxter, author of KondratieffWinter.com, on whether the power of perception is enough to keep the economy going, and what happens if the illusion ends.
It's the dog days of summer, but today we're talking about winter, a Kondratieff Winter to be exact. Kondratieff Winters historically feature high volatility, slow-to-negative growth, de-levering – by consumers, corporations, and governments – banks hoarding cash, asset deflation, and economic depression due to the bursting of unsustainable credit bubbles. Does this sound familiar? Peter Baxter, President of Baxter Capital Advisors, will explain why he thinks we are in a Kondratieff Winter and where this theory says the economy is headed.
Kondratieff Wave theory explains how global and regional capitalist economies experience cyclical, 60-year boom-and-bust patterns that always coincide with a peak in credit. We talk to Peter Baxter about each of the four seasons in a cycle – Winter, Spring, Summer, Fall – and how each season exhibits similar characteristics. Once credit has peaked in the cycle, it must be choked off so that excesses from the previous cycle can be removed. Baxter will explain how he foresees the current Winter cycle playing out, and why the mainstream media has largely ignored Kondratieff Wave theory.
Plus, a moratorium on the sale of Facebook shares ended today, sending the social media giant's stock value spiraling to new lows. Despite disasters like this, a broader trend shows stocks rising and treasury yields declining. These are contradictory signs – Peter Baxter will explain why he thinks the bond market knows something that the equities market doesn't.