“Israel’s attack against Iran is unlikely”
“I don’t think Israel will launch a military strike because it would have to have the consent of US. American forces based in Iraq, in Turkey and in the Persian Gulf region, which stand between the two countries. And if the Israelis attacked Iran, that would mean that the US was a part of that attack and they would have to expect retaliation from Iran,” he said.
However, he added, Iran’s response to any potential attack “would be severe”. For the last few years, Iran has been preparing itself for any potential threat.
“So, I do think that Iran is prepared but I don’t think any strike will happen anytime in the near future,” Dr Marandi added.
Meir Javedanfar, Director at the Middle East Economic and Political Analysis, agrees that a military attack is unlikely.
“I think the Israeli government is very much interested in a peaceful solution to the current crisis,” he said. “There’s a lot of hope in the upcoming negotiations between Iran and the US that both sides can work the differences out over a negotiation table. This outcome would be for the benefit of Israel and the entire region.”
As for UN sanctions against Tehran, Meir Javedanfar believes they should be targeted against the Iranian leadership and their assets.
“First of all, we have to hope that negotiations work. If they don’t work, I think the sanctions for them to work should not target the people of Iran. The people are not guilty…,” he said.
“I particularly don’t think that President Ahmadinejad cares about their suffering, from what we can see on the streets of Tehran and from the violent crackdown against Iranian demonstrators,” he added.