icon bookmark-bicon bookmarkicon cameraicon checkicon chevron downicon chevron lefticon chevron righticon chevron upicon closeicon v-compressicon downloadicon editicon v-expandicon fbicon fileicon filtericon flag ruicon full chevron downicon full chevron lefticon full chevron righticon full chevron upicon gpicon insicon mailicon moveicon-musicicon mutedicon nomutedicon okicon v-pauseicon v-playicon searchicon shareicon sign inicon sign upicon stepbackicon stepforicon swipe downicon tagicon tagsicon tgicon trashicon twicon vkicon yticon wticon fm

Vigilance still the watchword on rebounding economy

Upbeat forecasts say Russia's economy could grow 2.5% in 2010 - maybe even double that. This week the government shared its optimistic 2010 outlook and took a look back, at how Russia fared during the financial crisis.

9% unemployment, prices up more than 8%, GDP down 8.7%, A ballooning budget deficit – 8.3% of GDP. But we survived – said President Medvedev.

“We have paid a relatively low price for the international financial and economic crisis which occurred around the Planet.”

$30 billion – Russia's bill for anticrisis measures – mainly for banks short of capital. Even with government aid, banks cut back lending to businesses. Next year's stimulus will be about a quarter of this year's level, with Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin, noting growth has returned.

“We are currently in a growth trend, and there will be growth in the fourth quarter. That’s a fact! We will likely see GDP growing next year That is confirmed by international experts who give us better outlooks, than we do ourselves!! They forecast 3% and even 5% growth!"

But those upbeat forecasts depend on the oil price. The budget needs a minimum of $65 dollars per barrel. The decline in Russia's recent double-digit inflation – seen at no more than 7,5% next year – is sadly just a result of a weak economy. And Alexei Kudrin says caution is still the watchword.

“Poor balance sheets, unsettled real estate prices, a squeeze on lending and the need to withdraw stimulus. All these risks are still in place. This all means that we need to be cautious next year, and extremely vigilant."

Podcasts