Gold retains investor shine on road to $1000/oz
Gold is making its third tilt at the almost mystical $1000/oz mark in the last 18 months. Along with equities and most other commodities its been on a roller coaster ride over that time. Unlike everything else, it remains within sight of all time highs.
Marat Gabitov, Vice President, and Metals and Mining Analyst at Unicredit Securities says uncertain times have seen people reach for something tangible, a historical store of value, something they trust.
“When you don’t know what will happen in future you just want to buy something safe. To put your money in a safe haven – and that's why you go for gold.”
Fears of another correction in equities markets have combined with a longer term question mark over the U.S. dollar to add to gold’s lustre. That saw it push beyond the $915- $955 range in which it held for most of the first half of this year in the middle of last week. The next key psychological mark is the thousand. With the new week seeing gold planted above $990, it could happen any time – especially after the weekends meeting of G20 Finance Ministers saw talk of exit strategies for stimulus measures hosed down. The extra spending is fuelling long term thoughts about inflation – always good for gold – as well as undermining sentiment about currencies.
Less than $20 dollars will see it push beyond the February high of $1006/oz, and $40 dollars will see it clear the nominal all time high set in March 2008 of $1032/oz. It added $30 in about 2 hours midweek, which explains the excitement for gold traders and dealers.
That sees increasing sentiment that if it clears the all time highs, there could be further upside in the short term. But Zhdan Shakirov, Analyst at Finam believes that over the longer term it will subside.
“We might see the situation when gold in the near future will be 1300-1400/oz. If there will be more bankruptcies in the banking sector or other negative things. In the long term gold is overvalued, it's overbought.”
But if it is overvalued, its overvalued because it still is seen as having a measure of safety that alternative investment vehicles don’t have. The last week has seen further reports that both China and Russia are increasing their reserve gold holdings. With the U.S. budget deficit and current account deficit placing even more question marks over the value of the dollar, there is a lot of sentiment looking for alternative stores. And for as long as those question marks remain, it seems that gold will shine in the spotlight.