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Russian scientists brace for approaching asteroid
Published: 20 January, 2010, 08:48
Edited: 16 October, 2010, 14:56
Russia’s space agency has been holding meetings about Apophis – the asteroid due to pass close to Earth in 2029. If it is not diverted, a collision could potentially kill millions, scientists say.
“Apophis was discovered in 2004,” explains Boris Shustov, Director of the Institute of Astronomy. “The probability of a collision with the Earth was very high, about 1 to 30. The collision of such a large body with our planet will cause great damage.”
Although others have estimated the probability of the collision to be lower, an asteroid with a diameter of 300m is still a cause for concern.
Scientists insist that the critical moment will come in 2029 when Apophis passes so close to Earth that it will be visible to the naked eye. Although there will be no threat of an impact at that particular moment, it is not until then that scientists will know whether or not the 27 million ton rock will eventually collide with Earth when it approaches it again in 2036.
NASA has dismissed all fears saying the chances of a collision are remote.
“I know that NASA scientists have been very busy tracking the orbit of this particular asteroid very, very carefully, and I know that they’ve now downgraded this risk considerably,” said Patrick Fullick, founder and president of Science Connections foundation in London. “So, it looks as if this particular asteroid is not particularly likely to hit the Earth in 25 years’ time, but that’s not to say that there is not a real risk of something like this happening.”
Meanwhile, the Russian space agency said it still wanted to be prepared.
“I think that exaggerating things and scaring ourselves would be incorrect,” admits Anatoly Koroteev, President of the Russian Academy of Cosmonautics. “But nonetheless, doing nothing and taking no measures would be wrong: all the more so, because the threat can be overcome.”
NASA has estimated that if the asteroid were to collide with Earth, the blast would be a hundred thousand times more powerful than the atomic bombing of Hiroshima.
Yury Karash, member of the Russian Academy of Cosmonautics, says the aftermath of the impact would not be of global scale but regional. However, the collision could wipe out countries and produce a destructive chain reaction in the environment, Karash says.
Valery Menshikov, also a member of the Russian Academy of Cosmonautics, says scientists should be careful not to underestimate the asteroid’s danger.
“There are a large number of asteroids revolving around the Earth and crossing its orbit. There are many stations that monitor asteroid danger, but sadly, we often overlook them,” Menshikov said.
“In October last year, a stone asteroid exploded over Indonesia at the height of 10-12km. The total explosion power was equal to over 50 megatons, which can be compared to three Hiroshima explosions,” Menshikov added.
Blowing up Apophis with nuclear weapons to prevent the impact has been ruled out, as weapons of mass destruction are forbidden in space by international treaty. One potential strategy is to send up spacecraft to nudge and deflect the asteroid.
If this is the case, NASA and the European Space Agency would be invited to take part once a mission is finalized, the Russian Space Agency has said.
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The asteroid over Indonesia last year had to have been of a magnitude of 50 kilotonn. But did that seriously happen? Cool... As for Brians question: No. That area of quantum theory, Heisenbergs uncertainty principles that is, only plays a big deal at a quantum level (very small). Of course, one do change the initial values slightly by observing the asteroid, but I doubt that has anything to say:) Sad thing is that the years before 2029 will be filled with the same doomsday prophecies as that of today (2012...) all over again. At least some Hollywood people will make a nice bunch of money when they make a movie out of it^^ Just wait and see, it will happen...
Pulverizing the object with nuclear devices may just increase the probability of being hit by more and smaller objects in more densely populated areas. Nudging it out of an orbit likely to collide with Earth may put it on a more deadly track in the future. A smaller process using less force than either may produce the "butterfly effect" in reverse and take it out of harms way permanently. (then again, by observing the experiment, we are changing the outcome, according to quantum thinkers...so perhaps we've been missed in the past by ignoring some of these objects?)
The 2 commenters above are WAY off the mark. The 2004 Japanese Space Agency (JAXA) asteroid probe mission actually landed a sampler , which lay for 1/2 hour on the surface of the asteroid. No need for fuzzy calculations OR thinking here- if the asteroid is a threat, we'll send a probe that can harpoon or gun-rod -ancho itself to it, that mounts a nuclear-thrust (or any other kind of rocket engine) on it and shove it to the side in an orbit we can calculate- based on its current orbit and the thrust we give it with our lander. This is current technology- I'm not talking about anything new here.