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Drug dealers and prostitutes can improve Russia’s GDP – officials

Published: 13 October, 2010, 22:42
Edited: 14 October, 2010, 15:00

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TAGS: Manufacturing, Russia, Russia and the global economy, Prime Time Russia, Economy


The State Statistics Service has come up with an inventive way to improve Russia’s economical performance: by stretching the GDP with illegal revenues.

The idea was proposed by the head of State Statistics, Aleksandr Surinov.

“Strictly speaking, all countries have to take into account illegal business, such as drug dealing, prostitution, counterfeiting, and arms sales,” Surinov said. “But only few really do. The US, for example, treats illegal abortions as a shadow economy in health care.”

So far, Russia did not join in. Economists say the main reason is a lack of methodology: no one knows how shadow incomes can be calculated.

Meanwhile, the amount of “lost” economic progress might be quite significant. The Statistics Service has estimated that from 2006 to 2008, the shadow economy accounted for 14-16 percent of GDP. Last year, Surinov said, the figure was 20-25 percent.

Independent economists have come up with even bigger figures.

They say that shadow economy covers much more than prostitution and drug dealing. Apart from unregistered firms, it also includes so-called “hidden production” – when legally registered companies hide their actual incomes or volumes of output to evade taxes.

As a result, the shadow economy’s share of GDP may be considerably higher. Specialists from the World Bank say that it accounts for as much as 49 per cent of GDP.

“Figures presented by State Statistics are enough to make a cat laugh,” Mikhail Delyagin, head of the Globalization Issues Institute, was quoted as saying by the Novye Izvestia newspaper. “On the other hand, 49 percent is more about 2008 when a big part of Russian economy went into the shadows. The real figure, I believe, is around 44 percent. It is evident that the shadow economy still makes up a very big part of the Russian economy. There are new offshore companies opening. Low salaries don’t hamper ever-growing numbers of expensive cars in the streets. And despite problems with business, people keep returning bank loans.”

Furthermore, specialists believe that the shadow economy will only grow in the years to come. Starting on January 1, 2011, insurance premiums paid by employers are set to increase from 26 to 34 percent. As a result, economists forecast, 20 percent of small businesses will be closed; others will join the ranks of their shadowy colleagues.

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Meslin October 14, 2010, 13:19
0

Will it not be better to take radical actions to limit corruption and illegal actions. It seems that this was Mr Medvedev's credo to become president. This topic encourage the opposite direction. In America, prostitution is illegal but escort's girls business is not which procure the same service; mostly for the riches...Belle mentalité ! As I repeat so often, Russia copy the West more and more; mostly for the bad part. Sorry Future Generations...JCM

Enrique October 14, 2010, 01:37
0

The main business of the shadow economy will be construction projects, new apartments. And second, prostitution and drugs...But including them only would make sense if prostitution and/or drugs are legalised. If they are not legal, it doesn´t make sense. Easier would be legalising four million immigrants who have been living in the Russian Federation for years. That would make them and their employers paying social taxes.