The IMF is basing its assumptions on the annual review of Russia’s economy. They say that as the country has a commodities-based economy, its oil and gas exports will definitely increase in the next couple of years – given the fact that the global economy and production are growing.

The strengthening of the ruble is also contributing to the IMF’s prediction. Russia has climbed out of last year’s hole, when the rate of exchange was 36 rubles to the dollar, and now it is at 29 rubles to the dollar.

Other good factors are sharply lower inflation rates, a healthier labor market, a falling unemployment rate, and increasing demand in all areas leading to consumption-driven growth.

However, the IMF has warned that the banking system and financial markets in Russia are still very fragile. The recent heat wave can damage the growth, lowering the country’s wheat exports, one of the major drivers of the economy at this time of the year.

One of the IMF’s main recommendations is to start reversing its fiscal stimuli introduced last year to boost the economy – otherwise there is the risk that inflation rates will start going up, and the government will be left with a huge budget deficit.

There also should be further structural reforms in the monetary policy, including stricter control of the inflation rates as an overheating economy and rapid appreciation of the currency would also lead to another slump.

“Currently, Russia has $120 billion in two oil funds,” Yaroslav Lissovolick, chief economist at Deutsche Bank Russia, told RT. “But in 2008, Russia had as much as $220 billion, so the overall amount of reserves is still significant, but notably smaller. So, because of the depletion of reserves, dealing with further waves of crisis will be extremely difficult for the country.”