For the next ten years, officials say, there are two possible scenarios the industry can stick to.

The first one, leaving things as they are, focuses on getting “maximum incomes in the current economic environment” which will inevitably lead to a drop in extraction by 2020.

The second one involves a major sector overhaul, including a shift to a different taxation regime, higher investments and changes in extraction rates. This, however, will result in much better extraction figures: in ten years, it will go up by 6.3 per cent.

To achieve this, the industry will have to differentiate taxes for old and new deposits, raising the burden for the first ones but lowering it for the latter – since the price of such scenario will amount to 7.2 trillion rubles.

Until 2020, the Ministry does not plan to carry out any new projects concerning extraction or transportation. Stabilization and growth will be maintained with the help of old deposits operating since Soviet times. New deposits are needed to maintain stability after 2020.

Economists question the idea, saying that the project is still too raw and needs further calculations.