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Russia to hold its grip for decade to come - forecast
Published: 22 September, 2010, 16:08
Edited: 25 September, 2010, 00:28
Russia will remain one of the most influential world powers at least till 2025. The list of biggest world powers compiled by the US-based National Intelligence Council (NIC) placed the country at number 6.
The NIC are deluded if they think that the upcoming US relative decline is going to be 2% in the next 15 years. These guys are wearing some seriously rose-coloured glasses.
This report is obviously biased. US will not drop in influence by 2% - more like 50-70% from its current levels. EU survival is a big question too. As to the current status - Russia is definitely more influential than India, which has large popluation, but cannot compete for economic influence, and certainly not for political influence with Russia. And Russia's influence overall is substantially larger that Japan's, which has large export economy, but is under the US boot politically & militarily and doesn't exercise any independent decisions on the international arena. Even economically, it's a big question, since Russia posesses energy/resources and that's the name of the game today, while Japan has none. In 15 - 25 years time we'll live in a completely different, multipolar world, with a number of relatively equal, regional centers of power.
Larissa, The report says that the U.S. will fall 2 points, from 20% to 18%, and that means a 10% drop in influence. Taking into account that, for example, U.S. Defense spending is 12 times larger than Russia´s and 7 times larger than China´s...even a huge drop in U.S. spending will mean that the U.S. will be ahead in 15 years without doubt. GDP will increase about 40% by then (2.5% a year) while China´s will increase 110% (8% a year) so the U.S. will also keep the lead, slightly (20/17) Russia´s GDP will increase about 60% (4% a year) approaching Japan´s. But, of course, who knows about the future....
Larissa, You wrote: "...Russia possesses energy/resources and that's the name of the game today, while Japan has none." It is quite obvious president Medvedev thinks otherwise, or why would he have invited (among others) Japanese hi-tech companies to come and populate Skolkovo? There's no future for any country as a leading power that continues to bank on natural resources alone, and Russia's statistics for crime, alcoholism, drup abuse and juvenile suicide rate (the highest in the world, btw) speak volumes. Much has to change in Russia - for the better, that is...
@the scientist 1. Actually, Japan has one of the highest suicide rates in the world and that's been the case for the longest time. Depression in Japanese society due to a very boxed in existence, is pervasive and that leads to suicide. That's despite a very stable society. 2. On the other hand, Russia just recently emerged out of the devastating 90s. There is much to change and much to rebuild. Many achievements of the SU have been lost and the lost decade caused the country to be behind in some of the sci/tech areas. Drinking, male mortality, crime, youth, etc. problems stem from the 90s crisis. The Soviet Union posessed one of the most stable societies in the world. Children there were well cared for and educated, taught real values and felt safe. Crime, BTW was NON-EXISTENT. There was no problem traditionally, and this will be the case again when the country gets fully back on track. 3. Medvedev is absolutely correct in trying to diversify the country's economy and bring in companies/ specialists. If technology exists somewhere else, why reinvent the wheel? Meanwhile Russia can and will continue developing its traditional strengths. Japan has something Russia wants and Russia has something Japan wants (nat. resources) - they have a deal. Believe it or not, humans have been doing this for millenia, my friend. It's called trade and it's mutually beneficial.
@Enrique I can read numbers and am aware that a 2% drop from 20% results in 18%. But you are splitting hairs. I actually said that US influence in my estimate will drop by 50-70% from today's number of 20% and, therefore, will be 8-10% or less in 10-20 years time. I don't know what US spending will be in 15 years and neither do you - no one does. All exisitng projections don't reflect the reality. You assume USA's linear growth and development based on today's and historic numbers. But it's not news any more that the US empire is collapsing, and will likely experience in the next 10-20 years what USSR/Russia went through in the nineties. Collapse is a non-linear event, in which most of the wealth and economic capacity will be wiped out in a short period of time. BTW, Japan, being a part of the Western world, will likely lose part of it's capcity as well, even if it doesn't go through a full collapse experience. Look at the new currency/trade war that's developing between China and Japan. My money is on China's win. Your math, therefore, doesn't work.
Russia could be ahead of Japan if keeps an average 5% GDP growth while Japan keeps a 1% GDP growth. 1. Weapons: Russia leads over Japan in Defense spending, nuclear weapons and most conventional weapons (even if Japan produces and will manufacture some very advanced weapons) 2. Natural resources: no comment. 3 Population: Russia´s population is 15 million larger than Japan´s and in 15 years probably the distance will be larger, not smaller as Japan´s population will continue decreasing while Russia´s will increase actually as it has more room for imrprovement and will add several million Russian speaking immigrants from Ukraine. 4. GDP. At PPP Russia´s, GDP is half Japan´s...but if Russia´s GDP continue growing 5% a year and Japan just 1% a year, by 2025 Russia´s GDP will be larger than Japan´s.