@Enrique I can read numbers and am aware that a 2% drop from 20% results in 18%. But you are splitting hairs. I actually said that US influence in my estimate will drop by 50-70% from today's number of 20% and, therefore, will be 8-10% or less in 10-20 years time. I don't know what US spending will be in 15 years and neither do you - no one does. All exisitng projections don't reflect the reality. You assume USA's linear growth and development based on today's and historic numbers. But it's not news any more that the US empire is collapsing, and will likely experience in the next 10-20 years what USSR/Russia went through in the nineties. Collapse is a non-linear event, in which most of the wealth and economic capacity will be wiped out in a short period of time. BTW, Japan, being a part of the Western world, will likely lose part of it's capcity as well, even if it doesn't go through a full collapse experience. Look at the new currency/trade war that's developing between China and Japan. My money is on China's win. Your math, therefore, doesn't work.

@the scientist 1. Actually, Japan has one of the highest suicide rates in the world and that's been the case for the longest time. Depression in Japanese society due to a very boxed in existence, is pervasive and that leads to suicide. That's despite a very stable society. 2. On the other hand, Russia just recently emerged out of the devastating 90s. There is much to change and much to rebuild. Many achievements of the SU have been lost and the lost decade caused the country to be behind in some of the sci/tech areas. Drinking, male mortality, crime, youth, etc. problems stem from the 90s crisis. The Soviet Union posessed one of the most stable societies in the world. Children there were well cared for and educated, taught real values and felt safe. Crime, BTW was NON-EXISTENT. There was no problem traditionally, and this will be the case again when the country gets fully back on track. 3. Medvedev is absolutely correct in trying to diversify the country's economy and bring in companies/ specialists. If technology exists somewhere else, why reinvent the wheel? Meanwhile Russia can and will continue developing its traditional strengths. Japan has something Russia wants and Russia has something Japan wants (nat. resources) - they have a deal. Believe it or not, humans have been doing this for millenia, my friend. It's called trade and it's mutually beneficial.