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Armageddon 2036: Russian scientists say no
Published: 31 December, 2009, 01:52
Edited: 17 January, 2010, 09:40
TAGS: Natural disasters, Russia, Prime Time Russia
A huge asteroid, 350 meters in diameter, will come dangerously close to Earth, risking a lethal crash with our planet. However, Russian Federal Space Agency says there are ways to avert the collision.
A celestial body named Apophis – asteroid 2004 MN4 – is considered the greatest space danger for Earth. In 2029 it will pass within 30 thousand kilometers of Earth, closer than some orbital satellites. The greater danger, though, is to be expected in 2036 when the next encounter with Earth by the asteroid is planned – the trajectory of the celestial body is expected to change so that the collision is quite likely, the head of Federal Space Agency, Anatoly Perminov, said in an interview with the Voice of Russia radio. He mentioned the data comes from research by an unnamed scientist claiming the accident is almost inevitable.
If the meteor hits our planet, a territory the size of France would turn into a devastated desert. Russian scientists say, no need to worry: they are on the way to create a spaceship that will divert the threatening asteroid from its orbit. No nuclear bombs or Bruce Willis tricks are planned, only the laws of physics will be applied to saving Earth. The exact nature of the device has not yet been unveiled.
“It is about the lives of people”, Anatoly Perminov said, “It is better to pay some hundreds of millions of dollars and create the system that will prevent the collision than wait for hundreds of thousands of people to die”. After the solution is found, the plan is to attract other space states to finance the project, the USA and China among them.
Some scientists, though, doubt the crash is inevitable. According to NASA, the probability of such an accident is 1 to 250 000, though earlier they considered the collision scenario quite possible.
Author and space expert Jeff Manber told RT that Apophis is certainly one of the asteroids astronomer around the world are closely watching, and even though it has been labeled as posing a minor threat, anything could happen to change its trajectory and direct it to Earth.
He shared his opinion that exploding an asteroid of the Apophis size, about 270 meters in diameter, in Hollywood-style is not necessary; it is enough to use a satellite to push it a little bit and change its trajectory.
“We need some sort of international action. People have wondered ‘what do we do with asteroids?’" Jeff Manber said.
“Right now, NASA is not working with China so this would be very interesting to see if, first of all, Russia takes the lead on this, does move forward with the asteroid rescue mission and finally, for the Americans and the Chinese agree to go along. It’s going to be very interesting to watch,” he added.
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If there is a 1 in 250,000 chance of a collision then the risk is, in gambling terms, and supposing that a collision would kill everyone, equivalent to the loss 26,800 lives (1/250,000 times 6.7 billion). And perhaps worse, a negative outcome would preclude any future generations being born. Earlier estimates may have posited a greater risk, but I doubt the adjustments to the present estimate were made for reasons other than error in calculation, the integration of under acknowledged influences, and/or greater amount of data. It takes time to zero in on these things, and people have made wild first estimates in the past that also proved incorrect. If we don't do anything, then we'll probably get away with it. However, it would be rational to try to do something about this. Even if you ignore the potential humanitarian cost of inaction, it would give us a technologically productive space goal. It would be something neat to try out, so long as we honor the Hippocratic oath. As Medvedev said, "Go Russia!".
Which will destroy the earth first: humans or an asteroid? Earth is a unique entity in the universe in that it possesses qualities necessary for advanced life. Nature created creatures to inhabit the earth; however, only one of the creatures (humans) has the ability to destroy the earth. All creatures coexist with nature without dominating it, except for the humans. Seems to me that human beings don't understand balance and stability. If one society, the Americans for example, become industrially powerful, they exercise arrogance of power by trying to dominate other human societies and launching aggressive wars to garner more and more of earth's limited resources. The humans are rapidly depleting the earth's resource both on land and in the sea to feed their industries and the exploding population. When the earth's resources are depleted: no more fish in the seas; no more fuels; no more forests; no more fertile land; and, no more fresh air, the billions and billions of starving humans will look to the cosmos and beg for an asteroid.
In 2006; on my war-trail against mediocrity, considering the sickning of mankind's governance, I had imagined a scenario for Humanity to save herself of an eminent self-destruction (a little book,called 2039 a preventive fiction) If the great majority of us keep on accepting to be governed by cynical, greedy, arrivist croocks and if we remain money'slaves, we could consider than in a few generations our specie will be extinct or living in hell. To make that scenario plausible and to give it a positive end, a huge worldwide catastrophy, not provoqued by men had to take place. I did not know about that asteroïde. I imagined one of those big rock coming in our vicinity in 2032, then deviating a large comet traveling also in our direction. That huge piece of glace and its long queue crashed on the moon's hiden face. Consequently our satellite changed its trajectory and came closer to Earth during a certain time; making a lot of troubles for mankind on the planet'surface. Humans had to forget their bickering attitude and learn what solidarity means...A 350m asteroïde colliding Earth at 30000kmh will make a big hole and let billons of tons of ash out, in our atmosphere but will not destroy all living species. If it fall on the oceans, it will do less damages than the one which killed the dinosaures, 65 millions years ago. Psychologically, the fear of such a catastrophy could wake up our huge silent majority and change mankind behavior. Every event has a positive factor !!! Sincerely...Jean-Claude Meslin PS: That little book was not published because I do not get abused twice by the same crooks and no french publisher deserve to do it...I had just the pleasure to write it on my computer and can send it via Internet. (no rush)